|Important Info About the Official "Fur Contests"|
Earliest user registration possible: May 1, 2010
Overall Average Registration Date: 20.3/ 7.7/ 2011.9
Overall Average Contest Year: 20.5/ 8/ 2016.5
This difference from the contest year and registration date are consistent and are not the result of an outlier year throwing the numbers off.
Probability of 2013 and below being randomly chosen as winner (Assuming all years have an equal number of players from each): 2/3 ✓
Average Registration Date: 24.7/ 7.7/ 2012.3
Probability of 2014 and below being randomly chosen…: 4/6 ✓
Average Registration Date: 11.5/ 7.5/ 2012.5
Probability of 2013 and below being randomly chosen…: 3/7 ???
Average Registration Date: 19.2/ 8/ 2011
Probability of 2013 and below being randomly chosen…: 3/8 ?????
Average Registration Date: 25/ 7.5/ 2012
Even with assuming that there are still as many active older players as there are active newer players and also not considering the growing population of newer players, the chances of winning are increased with an older account.
Take this and consider the players that join the game year after year. People play this for a couple of years and like many other games, may get bored and quit the game. Assuming that players stay on the game for about 2 years each, think about how unlikely it is to have players who have registered at an earlier date win the contest. Players who are registered in 2014, 2015, and 2016 are more likely to be active than players from 2010 to 2012. People move on, people grow up, of course this is going to happen. Only a small number of dedicated players stay in the game.
The argument that players will be more involved in the community after a couple of years of registration is false. Community oriented players are consistent with their involvement with their respective community. A player who never goes on forums for any of their games or interests will most likely not change for another game. For example, before my account posted on the forums, I was a moderator for a Smash Brothers community online and contributed to Youtube videos and always commented on videos I was interested in. Of course I would be involved with this community, as I have had a previous interest in such along with some experience.
The artists who have won the fur creating contest are great and through researching this, I had stumbled across many of their art accounts. Many do amazing, detailed, expressive, and wonderfully colored art and I see that they are improving which is very inspiring for me as an artist. This contest has many talented artists as well though. With so many entries, it is baffling to see only people within a certain registration range win the contest. Especially for the contest this year, there were many professional and creative entries that it was extremely difficult to limit the number of furs compared to the other years. I do not mean to berate those who have won the competition, I simply would like to question the legitimacy of this contest being judged based on the design of the furs alone.
There are other ways to celebrate and give praise to specific players without risking the integrity of a once a year fur contest. Have a player of the month feature with prizes, feature more artists by creating a social media page dedicated to them.
All I wish for it a fair and just contest where every can have a chance to win based on their skills. It is disappointing and discouraging to see people who have worked so hard not even have a fair chance in winning. If these years are indeed a peak at the voting process for this contest, I am extremely bummed about the administration of this game. I do not want these contests to stop, I just would like there to be an extended jury and a change to judges in the later fur contest years.
To anyone reading this, do not be discouraged, I know there are so many prospective artists in this community. Keep practicing and know this contest does not dictate your skill.
The chances of winning the fur contest are slim unless you have an account that was registered around 2012 and the judging process should be reworked or put under scrutiny.
I appreciate the work and effort you've done here, but registration dates have never been taken into account or looked at, when jurying.
What I will say is that the 2015 Create a Fur was poorly handled and the voting system wasn't well thought out, it was the first year afterall.
But I appreciate your care and analysis. Well done!
Can we take a moment to also consider that nearly anything is animal related? They are just becoming overrated, and they dont even bother to bat a eye on giving a shot at something else. The current fur contest that just ended confirmed my disappointment they are stuck into their animal cycle and it feels like that something different doesnt feel like to be there and is out of place.
I don't know man it's so weird that in an animal based game the other furs will only be other animals? Very strange.
Thanks for the info on the old contest, I'll add it to the table if I can find the players.
There is no way to include more examples in the data set, as there have not been any other fur contests.
I could look into the results of other contests organized for other categories, like maps. However they aren't connected to the jury and organizers of this contest and the fur contests in general. The stakes and entries are different and there are too many variables that would make a connection between the two faulty.
So I've done what I could with the available information and found that the average of 2012 being the winning registration date constantly speaks for itself. Only one year was different, the date being 2011 in the 2017 contest.
Speaking of which, what are the odds for 2010 players taking ALL the top 3 positions in 2017, considering that they would be competing against 7 other years of player registration (2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017).
Perhaps also it's a bit of favoritism - the judges already like particular players art because they're friends or they've seen them before + precedent of previously added furs in the game (runner up albi for example) however I can't say the judging was purely biased/corrupt.
BUT I definitely agree with you that the judges need to be expanded and changed!
What isn't taken into account in this survey is the experience and insights players can have from being around for a longer period of time. It would only make sense that players who have been involved in the community longer have a better grasp and feel about what kind of furs are liked among the voters.
Additionally, in the past the forum community was more alive and vivid than it is today. It is certainly possible that players who were around then are still around now, because they are familiar with the forum community and continue to spend their time in it. Meanwhile, newer players who are not as familiar with the forums are less likely to spend time here because they see it isn't as active compared to the café or in-game chat. The result of this can be that the average forum user has an older registration date than the actual player base. Therefore the assumption that older players are outnumbered by newer users is not necessarily true.
You can probably think of other reasons that explain the information in the OP if you take the time, but it is clear from the start the OP only focusses on a random statistic like registration date (instead of for example the quality of submissions) and therefore dismisses all other possibilities as to why the results are the way they are.
I'll look into this cause this is a pretty valid reason. Thanks for giving a good explanation about the situation, hopefully you guys are right.
2015 Contest Winners
2016 Contest Winners
2017 Contest Winners
2018 Contest Winners
2015 Contest Announcement
2016 Contest Announcement
2017 Contest Announcement
2018 Contest Announcement
Also forgot to post these with my original post so I'll include these here.
So I went and recorded the registration dates of EVERY user for the 2018 fur contest. Below is a link to the google spreadsheet below so people can verify my claim.
Right now, I’m taking a statistics course and thought this would be a cool opportunity to use the things I’ve learned in a practical situation.
I calculated manually the probability of the top 3 players winning randomly from chance alone and found that the probability for players who registered in the years 2012 and below to win randomly to be about 3.64%. I double checked with an online calculator that is linked in the spreadsheet.
This method is only inherently approximate however and I had to personally round the years and not include the months of the players to calculate the standard deviation and average. I also deleted duplicate registration dates in case I accidentally typed a date twice, as it is extremely unlikely two players have registered on the exact same date.
I can’t conclude anything yet. Although this percentage is small, I need to see if there is a trend with this percentage with the contests from other years.
Also I want to argue that the furs SHOULD be judged on their design and quality. The reason I’m doing this is to see if the judges are being influenced by the registration dates of the users in the contest. If you’re questioning why I’m judging the contest results based on the registration dates, then you know why exactly I’m doing this. Numbers don’t lie and would give me a definite answer, judging art by itself would be completely opinionated.
But if I were to judge the furs by themselves, then I could say that both new and old players have both good and not so good submissions. The design of the fur is based on the art skills and creativity of each individual player, not so much on the registration dates, so it would not make sense to see players with one range of registration dates constantly claiming the podium.
edit: fixed poor wording
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